SpaceX, NASA and the ESA seem like monolithic organisations - big teams which work to deliver big projects like the ISS, Starship/ Superheavy and Perseverance rover. However, what has become clear in recent times is that these gargantuan companies and agencies are actually partnered with smaller companies.
A partnering strategy can provide opportunity for companies which produce specialised products, with high quality, and reliability to get in on the space game. Here I will talk to some of these, and extend the logic further to discuss co-locators, ridesharing and how this can map on and extend the value of a planned, manned Mars mission.
A great insight into this is NASA's strategy to partner with private firms and public companies to de-risk its development strategy, streamline its cost base and enable greater innovation in its projects. Not only is this strategy great from a project management perspective: giving greater control and confidence on cost, time, resources, but it also shows that there are routes-in for smaller players.
Chief among these opportunities in recent years has been space allocation on ride-sharing aboard Falcon 9 rocket launches. In these rides, companies can pay and have their satellite loaded aboard and shot into orbit.
To wit - most recently as of February, the SpaceX team set another record - this time for the highest number of satellites at one time into Earth orbit - at 143 satellites. This sounds like a lot - however the volume of each satellite is low because they were mostly mini-sat units.
This surpasses the regular launch capability of 60 Starlink satellites which SpaceX regularly sends up as they approach their goal of delivering world-wide internet capability.
To extend this logic further, I will also discuss ride-sharing, co-locator opportunities for the long-distance run to Mars. If some assurance on landing can be given to firms, this can be sold as a business opportunity. A human crew comes with a significant amount of risk, risk management and cost - both on complex life support systems and crew health management. However, a cargo consignment can be shipped to Earth orbit and then sent to Mars on the 7-9 month journey.
Consider the impressive continuous improvement, machine learning and development of the landing algorithm of the SpaceX rockets. Now they can land on sea-barges, on land, and in high winds. These are challenging circumstances and each launch and landing refines the model to enable the systems to accommodate more and more 'risky' launch-landing scenarios.
If the (when the) same thinking is applied to the Starship launch landing on Mars, it will not be long until this can be packaged up as a de-risked service. One year soon, SpaceX will put a sticker on their service with a high degree of confidence, say 80-90% chance of successful landing. With guaranteed safe deployment on Mars, companies will line up to start claiming the opportunity to deploy science, technologies, and, later claim real-estate out there on Mars - likely through similar frontier colony rules as were established during the early colonial days in America - back when there was nothing outside of native encampments, no infrastructure, or recognisable resources.
Communications - Connection across Space
In my recent post i discussed communication systems and a robust revenue stream which could open up through the deployment of a reliable, high bandwidth communications channel to Earth. Information is key in all things - business, your local area, consumer prices, health. Here in space too, seamless albeit delayed communications between space colonies will be key before and during human occupation of off-Earth locations.
Deployment of a good communication system will enable the constructor of that system to charge users a reliable revenue stream. This will likely be a high value, high margin revenue stream because of the investment to get the data-generating system off-world in the first place. Think space-mining of asteroids, development of resources on Mars, resilient communications as Martian colonists start to look further afield to our solar system neighbours. Corporate colonists independent of SpaceX.
With any Martian mission, there will be many strong attempts by brands to get in there and get a brand, logo design on the Martian mission some-how. I would say this is inevitable, not only because of the buying power but also because of the influence of these companies.
Furthermore, being away from home for so long, and at such a physical distance, this will be a demanding experience for anyone, regardless of the psychometric scoring of the crew. Having home comforts aboard will give the Martians some sense of connection to home and bring a smile during what is sure to be a time peppered with difficult moments.
This should not be too different to commercial telecoms businesses on Earth today. Already we can consider the similar models, with pricing linked to volume, Service Level agreements and coverage, flexible modular plans. Initially there will be one player, then more. Competition will drive down the price.
Supply Chain for Equipment
The Martian crew will spend their life in the artificial habitat which as transported to Mars by inter-planetary starship. As a result, all their lives will depend on reliable equipment operation and straight-forward maintenance.
As maintenance suggests parts supply, 3D printing, local manufacture of parts for human habitats. Here too, there could be a lucrative market.
In recent years there has been a boon for 3D printing of small parts for replacements - pump impellers, small structural elements. This is now possible in a great deal of media - beyond the original flimsy, non-durable plastic elements of the early. FormLabs and other providers have broken ground in the last 10 years by bringing 3D printing to scale, through home users and small businesses.
We can expect that a similar roll-out and introduction of 3D printing to happen on Mars as well. As the colony scales, the need for maintenance will increase proportionally as more people add demand on the systems - air, water, propellant, communication, exercise systems. Because of the distances involved, resupply by Starship will not be a feasible option for 1/2 the Martian year. As a result, it will be important for the colony to be self-sufficient.
Part of this will be to manufacture tools and small parts - as in-situ resource utilisation takes off. 3D printing may not be so popular or utilised so much initially. The will likely owe to the fact that the first wave of colonists being in great risk scenario - those teams will have redundant redundancies upon redundancies. This will help them survive at all costs to prove the colony and establish a resilient base for future operations.
What tips the balance in favour of 3D printing on Mars after a few colony rotation cycles is the controlled atmosphere in the habitat, and the need for novel consumable parts which will be at the heart of critical systems like water reticulation and air handling units.
You can reach me on Twitter @Ronnie_Writes.
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